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- This phenomenon observed in Ireland risks being replicated on a larger scale across the continent. In its decarbonization strategy, Europe has planned to eliminate 200 TWh of gas-fired electricity. However, the increased electricity demand driven by data centers could not only jeopardize this objective but also increase dependence on fossil fuel imports, particularly from the United States. This could undermine Europe’s efforts to achieve its ambitious climate goals and maintain its energy independence.
The exponential growth in the use of artificial intelligence is putting increasing pressure on data centers in Europe, significantly increasing their electricity consumption. According to analyses by the Shift Project, this demand could double by 2030, reaching 200 terawatt-hours, and almost triple by 2035. Such an increase could undermine Europe’s decarbonization commitments, jeopardizing the goal of reducing energy supplied by gas-fired power plants. Ireland, already facing this reality, has implemented restrictions to limit the development of these infrastructures. However, the trend of data centers shifting towards alternative energy solutions could have unforeseen consequences on the energy plateau and compromise climate goals. The rise of artificial intelligence is driving demand for computing power, leading to increased electricity consumption by European data centers. This increase could threaten Europe’s commitments to reduce fossil fuel consumption by encouraging a return to gas for electricity generation. The Shift Project warns of this potential trend, using Ireland as an example of the consequences for the electricity grid and the environment. The growing impact of data centers on energy consumption The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming the European technological landscape. Data centers, the driving force behind this transformation, are experiencing exponential growth due to the increasing need for data processing. According to the Shift Project, data center electricity consumption on the continent is expected to rise from 100 TWh in 2023 to 200 TWh in 2030, with a projected surge to 369 TWh by 2035. This growth is primarily driven by AI, which is expected to account for 35% of this consumption in 2030. The Shift Project’s Alarm The Shift Project, a think tank focused on the energy transition, is sounding the alarm about the potential impact of this expansion. The additional consumption is not sufficiently factored into existing European energy scenarios. Hugues Ferrebœuf, project manager at the organization, emphasizes that this growing demand could force Europe to renege on its decarbonization commitments by reintroducing gas-fired power plants to meet these needs. The Irish Case: A Revealing Example Ireland offers a glimpse into the challenges posed by the unforeseen growth of data centers. Between 2014 and 2022, the share of data centers in Irish electricity consumption increased from 5% to 20%. This change has created strain on the electricity grid, necessitating a moratorium on new installations until 2028. However, to circumvent this restriction, some data centers have sought to source their electricity directly from gas, with significant implications for greenhouse gas emissions.
Implications for Europe
This phenomenon observed in Ireland risks being replicated on a larger scale across the continent. In its decarbonization strategy, Europe has planned to eliminate 200 TWh of gas-fired electricity. However, the increased electricity demand driven by data centers could not only jeopardize this objective but also increase dependence on fossil fuel imports, particularly from the United States. This could undermine Europe’s efforts to achieve its ambitious climate goals and maintain its energy independence.
